The Changing World

Where the Ball Rolls?

Anindya Bhattacharya

We have entered into a covid19-centric world. All discourses, exchanges and chats now centre on covid19 only. You browse through television channels or newspapers, engage in discussion with friends or relatives, chat or post in social media groups- the core point is covid19. The entire world is reeling under this threat over months.

Some may argue it as a backlash of nature. Others may put it as a passing phase, not unprecedented as seemed to be. Facing pandemic or endemic is not new to human race; though the question lies in combating it and the final loss it breeds. In that sense, we are still in the midway and the entire humankind is in confusion and on the back foot till date. But by any estimate, it reveals that this grim situation may prevail for at least two years from now.

I think it’s more of a self-realisation, albeit, an altogether new journey through the coming future. How much the lockdown will decrease the rate of infection, else, devastate the world economy- though trending at top of all discussions- may not be the right way of confronting as being done. It is obvious that the future will remain no more as it was. But that new future also deserves inputs from our self-realisation.

Before that, one must admit that over the last 5-6 years, there was a fast and surreptitious change going on in the political economy world-wide, advocated by artificial intelligence and internet of things. The virtual world was wildly occupying the economic arena. Human labour was more and more replaced by AI and robotics. The digital corporations and virtual companies were accumulating profits at a much higher rate and surpassing the market value of other big corporations. People were becoming more and more online and a kind of ‘gig economy’ was emerging as fast as could be. This sudden invasion by covid-19 just triggered the entire process. We are now at the threshold of a new normal.

The collapse of a large portion of the economy is imminent in the coming days. ILO has forecasted of half of the work force to go into oblivion. To their observation, more than four out of five people in the global workforce are hit by full or partial closures. Besides, the migrant workers are coming back to their native places implying loss of relevant skills at the regions they were in work. The manufacturing sector is the hardest hit, especially for MSMEs who have not enough cash flows to sustain their business. The construction, transport, hospitality, tourism and all such related sectors are also worst sufferers. The hospitality and tourism industry, as said to be 10% of global GDP, has fallen shattered. Salary cuts and job losses are at random. The labour department of US has already reported that during last April the unemployment rate in US had reached at 14.7%. According to India Today figures, unemployment rate in India touched at 23.52% in the same month. Are we heading towards a kind of civil war?

One can easily put it as the sword of Damocles on our head. If you open up the economy covid19 will invade you, else, you are in economic peril. With lockdown in place, people across the globe are dying like flies. The policy-makers are still pacifying by showcasing a low percentile of death, though the mortality rates are much higher in European countries, even then when the quantum is so high calculation hardly matters.

In this backdrop, the new normal is shaping up its way. The virtual world which was swaying the entire world economy over the last 5 to 7 years has seized this opportunity to come up in a more aggressive tactic. Covid19 has made its advance more penetrating and slicker. When the manufacturing and other industries are whirling under heavy pressure of covid19, Whatsapp has acquired more than 9% of stake in JioMart. Another instance may be of Reliance Industries acquiring majority stake in Netmeds, an online pharmacy. The video app Zoom and likewise other virtual tools and utilities are occupying the centre-stage of economic and social activities. The online economy is opening up in the most vigorous way elicited by covid19 scenario. So then, what are the implications of such moves?

The economy now failing in the physical reality may survive in a changed manner in the virtual space in the future. That was also obvious over the last few years but the pace is now too fast and over-determining. This entails a major change in the perception, lifestyle and working modalities of the people at large. Say for instance, if entertainment industry is to survive at an enormous capacity, then it needs to be refurbished in the new domain of its existence, inferring the perception of amusement to change so that the new utilities are more and more adapted as normal. People are now more habituated with net series and you tube creations and likewise other forms may be popular as well. For that matter, new technique of shoots and making will also emerge. The techniques of hologram and AI-induced dummies may be put in use.

Likewise, if manufacturing is to continue in newer perspective, severe changes are in the offing, like home-based 3D printing technology may come to the fore. Besides, remote-controlled robotics may perform the functions of the workers. The demand for skill may be met by AI operated robotics and other automation.

The education sector is also undergoing a major metamorphosis. The education system may go mostly online, keeping the notion of digital divide alive. After the basic school system, the higher education is now a challenging sphere. Nobody knows where and how to go. The general graduate courses will have no value as such and it may soon be replaced by professional corporate skill schools.

To add on service sector, more and more public places, like malls, theatres, stadiums may be less preferred and supplanted by massive home-delivery and on-demand technologies. Home theatres and Holograms may dominate the viewing orbit. The future of insurance and banking will have no other option but to be largely online.

But all these changes obviously are not non-biased. A large population would be unwanted and the advent of ‘gig economy’ would make them a reserve force. As the nature of job will be contractual and short-lived, persons who are not at work now may be into some job later. Likewise, a contractual working man may be out of job after a short period. This would be the emerging chaotic pattern of working population where the gambling cycle of job and unemployment would be an obvious reality and signifier of one’s existence. Covid19 has made it more probable.

Arriving at this threshold, nobody now denies the imminence of Universal Basic Income (UBI) a stark reality. From the die-hard conservatives to the utmost liberals, everybody is now harping on exploring the possibilities of UBI. Covid19 is a major catalyst here as well. To be precise, our country is very much into the process of partial UBI by different state governments over the last few years. It has worked not bad and now has also tagged the covid19 affected situation. The prevalent social welfare schemes by different state governments (though with lots of shortcomings as well) have indeed struck a chord with the present developments, even combating the menace of covid19. The matter of fact now is to watch how these social welfare schemes are converted into a comprehensive UBI in the next few years.

But all these endeavours, even though necessary, are not just sufficient to face the future. The inhuman pursuit for profit, overdosed consumerism, sustained disparity and inequality, desperate environmental disasters et al- these are shrewdly cultivated in the present day animal-spirited capitalist-industrial system and we all are carriers of such deadly thought-viruses. A stern opponent of this industrial civilisation, Mahatma Gandhi was not very sure how to halt its headway. He rather said that if people at large realised its menaces then its progression might be checked. Indeed, self-realisation, if at all deserved, would stem out from negation of these thoughts. Covid19 has also given us a chance to revisit our soul. But the million dollar question even here is- who will bell the cat?