Whats the Election Scenario?
Amit Sengupta
Just came back after voting for Rajmohan Gandhi. Feels good. A secular scholar, decent human being, and a man of integrity, i got him to write regularly for HT when i was handling the edit page during the sinister BJP-led NDA regime. The middle class is not disclosing, but the poor, Dalits, minorities and working class are upbeat and frank... they are voting for Rajmohan Gandhi in East Delhi, since "both the Congress and BJP are anti-poor, looters and plunderers" -- they say. People have seen through the obscene, multi-crore ad campaign backed by corporates and paid news urban media. "Baad mein hamara khoon choosenge," is the refrain. There is no Modi wave or 'hawa' here, or in UP or Bihar, reporters and locals on the ground are reporting. Nowhere..... It's all a pseudo media hype. No one cares a damn for the feku Gujarat Model in the Hindi heartland....
Except in parts of western UP where they have polarised votes on vicious communal and hate politics led by Amit Shah, even many constituencies here in the first phase of the polls might give a big surprise. There is very little chance that RLD of Ajit Singh and BSP will not gain in some of the constituencies, despite the hate polarisation, due to their old and traditional vote base. Hema Malini is surely losing in Mathura. Kairana and Saharanpur might go with BSP. In eastern UP, or Bihar, reporters on the ground have not spotted any hawa in support of Modi, and locals are yet again voting majorly on caste lines. BJP's ticket selection, internal dissension and Brahmins going against them will cost it dear. Even Rajnath Singh's seat in Lucknow is in a mess because Brahmins are strongly offended against the BJP in the Ganga-Jamuni belt and Rita Bahuguna Joshi's campaign is indeed gaining strong ground. So where is the Modi wave? Indeed, if the BJP president runs away from his old seat of Ghaziabad next to Delhi what is the message that goes in UP? So this hype about gaining 50 in UP and a huge number in Bihar is doubtful, with the Laloo factor becoming increasingly strong in Bihar.
In Delhi, the poor and deprived are overwhelmingly with AAP. Rakhi Birla too stands a strong chance in her reserved constituency. And so does Prof Anand Kumar who is giving a tough fight to the BJP.
I went to Northeast Delhi constituency with some old JNU friends to express solidarity with Prof Anand Kumar, our JNU senior, friend and teacher, and AAP Lok Sabha candidate. Some of us share the heady history of the JNU Students' Union with him as former presidents of JNUSU. There is no doubt that he has gained massive ground and is giving a tough fight to the BJP and the multi-crore paid news Modi's ghost which has been showcased everywhere. His Lok Sabha campaign is especially strong among the poor, working class, migrant workers, unorganised labourers, women, minorities, the middle classes, students, and teachers and staff of Delhi University and its colleges. His campaign has also broken the backbone of the so called celebrity BJP candidate's poorvanchal card (with deep pockets), among large sections of people from this region of the Hindi heartland. They are also backing Prof Anand Kumar. This is really an intensely and starkly backward, poor and neglected area, with hardworking people and the poor left to their fate by the Congress regime (and its MP) and earlier governments. People want hope and relief and a better life. Anand Kumar and his campaign by friends and supporters has struck a strong, popular and instant chord. He is giving a real solid fight to the BJP and can break the threshold of the victory margin.
Amit Sengupta
Just came back after voting for Rajmohan Gandhi. Feels good. A secular scholar, decent human being, and a man of integrity, i got him to write regularly for HT when i was handling the edit page during the sinister BJP-led NDA regime. The middle class is not disclosing, but the poor, Dalits, minorities and working class are upbeat and frank... they are voting for Rajmohan Gandhi in East Delhi, since "both the Congress and BJP are anti-poor, looters and plunderers" -- they say. People have seen through the obscene, multi-crore ad campaign backed by corporates and paid news urban media. "Baad mein hamara khoon choosenge," is the refrain. There is no Modi wave or 'hawa' here, or in UP or Bihar, reporters and locals on the ground are reporting. Nowhere..... It's all a pseudo media hype. No one cares a damn for the feku Gujarat Model in the Hindi heartland....
Except in parts of western UP where they have polarised votes on vicious communal and hate politics led by Amit Shah, even many constituencies here in the first phase of the polls might give a big surprise. There is very little chance that RLD of Ajit Singh and BSP will not gain in some of the constituencies, despite the hate polarisation, due to their old and traditional vote base. Hema Malini is surely losing in Mathura. Kairana and Saharanpur might go with BSP. In eastern UP, or Bihar, reporters on the ground have not spotted any hawa in support of Modi, and locals are yet again voting majorly on caste lines. BJP's ticket selection, internal dissension and Brahmins going against them will cost it dear. Even Rajnath Singh's seat in Lucknow is in a mess because Brahmins are strongly offended against the BJP in the Ganga-Jamuni belt and Rita Bahuguna Joshi's campaign is indeed gaining strong ground. So where is the Modi wave? Indeed, if the BJP president runs away from his old seat of Ghaziabad next to Delhi what is the message that goes in UP? So this hype about gaining 50 in UP and a huge number in Bihar is doubtful, with the Laloo factor becoming increasingly strong in Bihar.
In Delhi, the poor and deprived are overwhelmingly with AAP. Rakhi Birla too stands a strong chance in her reserved constituency. And so does Prof Anand Kumar who is giving a tough fight to the BJP.
I went to Northeast Delhi constituency with some old JNU friends to express solidarity with Prof Anand Kumar, our JNU senior, friend and teacher, and AAP Lok Sabha candidate. Some of us share the heady history of the JNU Students' Union with him as former presidents of JNUSU. There is no doubt that he has gained massive ground and is giving a tough fight to the BJP and the multi-crore paid news Modi's ghost which has been showcased everywhere. His Lok Sabha campaign is especially strong among the poor, working class, migrant workers, unorganised labourers, women, minorities, the middle classes, students, and teachers and staff of Delhi University and its colleges. His campaign has also broken the backbone of the so called celebrity BJP candidate's poorvanchal card (with deep pockets), among large sections of people from this region of the Hindi heartland. They are also backing Prof Anand Kumar. This is really an intensely and starkly backward, poor and neglected area, with hardworking people and the poor left to their fate by the Congress regime (and its MP) and earlier governments. People want hope and relief and a better life. Anand Kumar and his campaign by friends and supporters has struck a strong, popular and instant chord. He is giving a real solid fight to the BJP and can break the threshold of the victory margin.
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